Issue #437: Why Longevity is Like Investing
Good morning. It’s Friday, March 14th.
Stat of the Day
The average percentage of actively traded mutual funds that “underperform” the S&P 500 - meaning a lower return - between 2001-2024. There hasn’t been a year this century where a majority of funds beat the market. (Visual Capitalist)
Focus
Longevity is Like Investing
“In professional tennis, about 80% of the points are won; in amateur tennis, about 80% of the points are lost.”
This quote comes from Simon Ramo (“Extraordinary Tennis for the Ordinary Player”).
But it came up in the new book on investing - “How NOT to Invest.”
What’s the connection to investing?
Wealth manager Barry Ritholtz argues that the biggest problem for the average person trying to build a nest egg for retirement is that we make too many mistakes.
The argument has been made for a long time - one of the first books I ever read about investing was “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”, which was written back in 1973.
The premise - it’s a fool’s errand to try and beat the market.
Ritholtz makes the argument that it’s a losing strategy to constantly be on the lookout for the next Nvidia and to constantly be timing the market by moving your money in and out.
Instead, the best investment strategy is really boring - put 80% of your portfolio in a diversified set of assets that take the average return for that specific sector - whether that is growth vs. value, or U.S. vs Europe stocks.
But if the math proves this out - why is it so easy for people to make this mistake and not follow this prescription?
First - FOMO. By definition, if you are diversified then when some of your assets go up, others go down. So if you kept a diverse portfolio for the last 5 years, you’d have netted a consistent 15% return. BUT, you’d constantly hear from your colleagues who are bragging about how much money they’re making because all their money is in the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla) - FANG is so 2022.
Second - Human Emotion. We know there’s no substitute for the law of compounding, and that time is our greatest ally to have a substantial retirement fund. But the get-rich-quick schemes are just too enticing to pass up. We’re wired with dopamine and looking for a quick fix and want to do anything to find a shortcut to wealth.
I mean who’s going out to a networking event bragging out their automated ETF’s getting market returns with low fees? That’s not getting clicks and likes.
Back to Longevity
The reason this struck my attention - this is the exact same roadblock to optimizing longevity.
Supplements or peptides or whatever other hack is going nuts on social media is just like Nvidia. We hate the thought that someone else is on to something and we’re missing out. Which of the 60 supplements Bryan Johnson takes do I need right now?
And honestly - who wants to keep talking about going to bed earlier and walking 10K steps and lifting weights and being grateful and…
It really is the long game - longevity isn’t some destination because we found a quick fix. It’s the entire journey when we do the little things that no one else even notices on a consistent basis.
So just like your retirement fund - remember 80% of your longevity is the core of what you do every day. It’s the foundation that we preach every issue.
But life is short and should still be fun - go pick some stocks with that other 20% if that’s your thing. If you catch fire - awesome. If some new company with new AI chips crushes Nvidia - you’ll still be ok.
Same with health - be willing to experiment with what interests you and aligns with your goals and risk tolerance. But don’t make that the core of why you think you’ll still be crushing it when you’re 80, 90, 100…
One more word of warning - just like those fund managers taking your fees by telling you they can beat the market, most people are complete charlatans when it comes to health & longevity.
It’s the Dunning-Kruger effect - these people actually believe they’re experts when they’re not even close.
Find people to listen to who are honest about what they don’t know and admit that health & longevity is complex when it comes to what any one person should do.
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Read
How NOT to Invest
New book out next week. Unlike the other investing books telling you what to do - Barry Ritholtz focuses on the mistakes most of us make that leads to losing more money.
His thesis is that it’s more important to avoid costly errors (literally) that try to win by picking the best investment options. Our financial future is a huge factor in our future health.
H&L in the News
Unlock Peak Energy - Eat Early: Eating breakfast before 9 a.m. boosts energy, stabilizes blood sugar, and supports metabolism. Experts say skipping it increases fatigue, cravings, and long-term health risks - fuel up for better performance. (Outside)
Austin’s Coolest (and Hottest) Hangout: A fusion of European sauna culture and Burning Man vibes, Bathe is Austin’s first social bathhouse - featuring saunas, cold plunges, mineral pools, and immersive wellness experiences, all in a phone-free, alcohol-free oasis. Expansion TBD. (Fitt Insider)
Fungi - Nature’s Secret Conservationists: Scientists are harnessing mycorrhizal fungi to rescue endangered plants and restore ecosystems. But using the wrong fungi can backfire, making local research crucial for sustainable conservation efforts. (Knowable)
Brain Games
Logic Equations
Let’s go with 5 variables in this puzzle - A, B, C, D, E - with five possible values - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. None of the variables can share the same number. Based on the following equations, what do the variables equal:
C + E = 3
A + D+ E = 9
B + D = 7
It’s been a few weeks - shake off the rust with some brute force logic. Get out the stop watch and see how fast you can solve!
Credit: Brainzilla
**For answer, scroll to the bottom of the post
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** Brain Games Answer **
Answer: Yellow are the values for the variables. A=5, B=4, etc.
Why?…
First, review equation (1). To be true, C and E must be in the set {1,2}: {C,E} = {1,2}.
Next, check out equation (3). B and D could be the pair 2 + 5 or 3 + 4, but we just established {C,E} = {1,2}; so B and D must be the pair 3 + 4; {B,D} = {3,4}. That means A = 5.
Last, let’s look at equation (2). We know A = 5 and E can only be 1 or 2. If E = 2, then D would also need to be 2, so that’s not going to work. E = 1. If E = 1 in this equation, then D = 3. Also, C = 2. And if D = 3, then B = 4.
✅ How long did it take you?
Why Thrive25
We’re 40-something dads that felt our bodies and minds start to slow down and we’re not ready for that. We found too much information on every subject. So we started Thrive25 to transform what we’ve learned into something useful for the rest of us to spend just 3-5 min a day to optimize our health & longevity.
This newsletter is for you and we truly value your feedback. Never hesitate to reach out to us at team@thrive25.com.
To health!
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The information in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate or applicable based on your individual circumstances. Thrive25, Inc. does not provide medical, professional, or licensed advice. Please connect with your healthcare professional for medical advice specific to your health needs.